A new set of Emerson California governor crosstabs points to an increasingly competitive race in the state’s open gubernatorial contest, with Tom Steyer holding a narrow edge among Democrats while Republican voters are consolidating behind Paris Hilton in early ballot testing.
Among Democratic voters, Steyer leads the field with 20%, posting a nine-point increase from the previous measure. Close behind is Xavier Becerra at 19%, showing the strongest momentum in the field with a 15-point surge. Former House member Katie Porter stands at 15%, up three points, while Mahan trails at 6%, a one-point gain.
The independent voter crosstabs reveal a far more fragmented contest. Steyer again leads with 16%, but the margins are razor-thin, with Paris Hilton at 15%, Bianco at 14%, and Porter at 10%. The numbers suggest independents remain highly fluid and could become the decisive bloc as the race develops.
On the Republican side, Hilton has emerged as the dominant early favorite, commanding 48% support among GOP voters. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows at 40%, keeping the Republican contest competitive but clearly trailing in the current snapshot.
The polling underscores how California’s top-two primary system may produce an unpredictable general election dynamic. With several high-profile Democrats clustered within a few points and Republicans showing strong early consolidation, candidate momentum and media attention are likely to shape the next phase of the race.
Becerra’s rapid rise is particularly notable, signaling that Democratic voters may still be reassessing the field despite Steyer’s current lead. Meanwhile, Porter’s double-digit presence among both Democrats and independents suggests she remains a viable contender with room to grow.
As the 2026 race begins to take shape, these crosstabs indicate that California’s governor contest could become one of the most closely watched statewide battles in the nation, especially if the top-two primary yields an unexpected matchup.